Sam Altman’s Vision for the Future of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, remains optimistic that his company will pioneer artificial general intelligence (AGI). Speaking on a podcast with psychologist and author Adam Grant, Altman shared a contrarian view about AGI’s immediate impact. When asked for an unpopular opinion, he responded:

That it’s [AGI] not gonna be as big of a deal as people think, at least in the short term. Long term, everything changes.

Altman predicts that the moment AGI is achieved, the public reaction will be surprisingly muted.

I kind of genuinely believe that we can launch the first AGI, and no one cares that much,” he said, suggesting that most people would soon return to their daily routines.

Despite this, Altman emphasized that AGI’s long-term implications could redefine humanity’s trajectory:

You and I are living through this once-in-human-history transition where humans go from being the smartest thing on planet Earth to not being the smartest thing on planet Earth.

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A New Economic Paradigm

Altman acknowledged that AGI’s arrival will eventually overhaul global economies and reshape human activities. However, he reassured that humans would adapt:

Eventually, I think the whole economy transforms. We’ll find new things to do. I have no worry about that.

This perspective aligns with other industry leaders like Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, who highlighted in an essay that AI advancements wouldn’t render human efforts meaningless.

Tasks you undertake aren’t pointless simply because an AI could do them better, Amodei wrote. Instead, he believes that people may find value in pursuits unrelated to economic output, such as mastering challenging activities for personal satisfaction.

Amodei also noted that humans might maintain an edge in certain physical-world activities, at least temporarily. However, as AI advances further and becomes more cost-efficient, traditional economic frameworks will likely need to be reimagined.

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Balancing Job Displacement and Creation

A common concern about AGI is its potential to cause widespread job displacement. Altman believes that while some professions will disappear, new opportunities will arise. This optimism echoes sentiments from Silicon Valley veteran Vinod Khosla, who predicts that AI will create entirely new job categories while eliminating many existing ones:

AI will generate more than enough wealth to go around, and everyone will be better off than in a world without it.

Khosla emphasized the importance of policies like income distribution and minimum living standards to mitigate economic disparities.

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Altman’s Vision for Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Altman has been a long-time advocate of universal basic income (UBI) as a solution to AI-driven job displacement. His advocacy dates back to 2016, well before generative AI gained mainstream attention. Altman funded a study through OpenResearch to explore the impact of giving $1,000 per month to 1,000 low-income Americans. The findings showed:

• Recipients spent more on basic needs.
• They worked less but approached employment with greater intentionality.

While the study highlighted UBI’s benefits, it also revealed its limitations in addressing systemic issues like healthcare, childcare, and housing costs. Despite these challenges, Altman sees UBI as a critical step toward mitigating the economic disruptions caused by AGI.

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The Case for Universal Basic Computing (UBC)

In addition to UBI, Altman proposes universal basic computing (UBC). He envisions a future where individuals own a share of AI’s computational productivity:

Imagine owning part of the productivity, like a slice of GPT-7 compute, which you could use, donate, or resell—transforming access into empowerment.

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The Role of Economists in an AGI Future

Economists will play a pivotal role in preparing for AGI’s societal impact, according to Anton Korinek, a University of Virginia professor. Korinek emphasized that transitioning to an AGI-driven economy will require new governance structures and policies:

Key challenges will include rethinking taxation systems, wealth redistribution, and understanding inflation dynamics in a world where AGI, rather than human labor, drives economic growth.

Korinek also highlighted the need for international cooperation to ensure equitable distribution of AI-generated wealth:

Addressing this issue will require unprecedented levels of collaboration and possibly the creation of new global economic frameworks.

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Final Thoughts

While the advent of AGI presents undeniable challenges, industry leaders like Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, and Vinod Khosla remain optimistic about humanity’s ability to adapt. Whether through UBI, UBC, or innovative economic policies, the goal is to ensure that AGI benefits all of society. As Altman succinctly put it:

If we handle this phase shift correctly, AI will generate more than enough wealth to go around.